Net Zero for Global Security? Navigating Geopolitical Shifts in the Energy Transition and the Rise of Global Hydrogen Trade

At the BMW Foundation Herbet Quandt’s Energy Security Hub accompanying the Munich Security Conference 2025, experts explored the geopolitical implications of the global energy transition and the emerging hydrogen economy, highlighting security risks, industrial competitiveness, and the path to a just and inclusive energy future at a panel event organized by H₂-diplo.

There was strong consensus among the panelists that the energy transition is more than an economic and climate issue but that it is increasingly becoming a core security concern. As countries abandon from fossil fuels, geopolitical rivalries will shift, introducing new security dynamics around clean energy technologies, critical raw materials, and complex cleentech supply chains. Jeniffer Morgan, German State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, emphasized that a strong and diversified German foreign climate and energy policy, through initiatives like H₂-diplo Decarbonization Diplomacy, is essential for managing these emerging risks, fostering international cooperation, and ensuring the transition remains just and inclusive.

Hydrogen trade is poised to reshape global energy corridors, creating both opportunities and challenges. Roland Roesch from IRENA’s Technology and Innvoation Center highlighted the potential for countries in the Global South with abundant renewable resources, to become key players in the global hydrogen market. However, as emphasized by Ambassador Salazar Mejía – Ambassador of the Republic of Colombia to Germany – equitable trade requires strong international standards, particularly around traceability of critical minerals, to prevent exploitation. Colombia’s call for a binding treaty on mineral traceability at COP30 underscores the urgency of this issue.

Infrastructure security also emerged as a major theme as recent incidents in the Baltic Sea have spotlighted vulnerabilities in energy transport networks. Rainer Quitzow, Research Group Leader at RIFS Potsdam, warned that expanding critical hydrogen infrastructure will inevitably require foreign investments – often from geopolitical rivals like China – raising concerns around cybersecurity and supply chain integrity. Proactive political strategies are needed to manage these dependencies and prevent reactive policymaking.

Moreover, the panel underscored that energy partnerships must balance economic, social, and security interests. Developing countries will only fully engage in the energy transition if they see tangible local benefits. In this regard, Ambassador Salazar Mejía stressed Colombia’s ambition to become a regional hydrogen hub but noted that foreign investment, technology transfer, and long-term offtake agreements are essential. Germany’s Decarbonization Diplomacy aims to avoid a “decarbonization divide” between the Global North and South, ensuring that hydrogen partnerships foster mutual benefits rather than deepen pre-existing inequalities. In this regard, the EU views a just transition as a competitive advantage in securing international alliances, positioning fairness and sustainability as core elements of its energy diplomacy.

The private sector will play a pivotal role in scaling hydrogen markets, but current regulatory uncertainties hinder investment. Katherina Reiche – CEO at Westenergie and Head of the German National Hydrogen Council – highlighted the need for stable, long-term frameworks to boost bankability and encourage large-scale investments in renewable energy and hydrogen projects. Without clear policy signals and incentives, such as green product quotas or mechanisms akin to feed-in tariffs, industrial decarbonization will stall. Panelists also stressed that public funding alone cannot drive the energy transition: Rainer Quitzow called for smarter industrial policies that incentivize industries and consumers to invest in green technologies. Bridging the investment gap will require combining public support with private sector innovation and market-based incentives. Moreover, industrial competitiveness in the hydrogen era will hinge on control over clean energy carriers and key technologies. Large-scale investments in hydrogen infrastructure, both within Europe and globally, will be essential to maintain economic leadership. In this regard, the EU’s evolving hydrogen strategies, alongside the Clean Industrial Deal, aim to strengthen Europe’s position, but challenges remain.

Another key takeaway from the event was the growing securitization of clean energy infrastructure. Protecting hydrogen pipelines, transport routes, and production facilities must become a core component of energy policy. Moreover, the panel challenged assumptions that hydrogen partnerships naturally lead to equitable outcomes, calling for explicit strategies to ensure that both exporting and importing countries benefit fairly.

The event reinforced that managing the geopolitics of the energy transition requires a delicate balance of industrial policy, security strategies, and equitable partnerships. As global hydrogen trade expands, fostering inclusive, resilient, and just energy systems will be key to long-term stability and global cooperation.

A re-live of the panel session is available on the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt’s YouTube Channel (starting at 8:04:30).

For more news about the H₂-diplo activities, follow us on LinkedIn: H₂-diplo – Decarbonization Diplomacy | LinkedIn

Net Zero for Global Security? Navigating Geopolitical Shifts in the Energy Transition and the Rise of Global Hydrogen Trade

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